signal / mapby Michaël HillaertSignal / Map is where I track valuation dislocations, strategic technology exposure and business durability. I keep these questions separate so the reasons behind each assessment remain clear.
THE FRAMEWORK
My subjective assessment of expected 3–5-year outperformance versus the S&P 500, adjusted qualitatively for fundamental, valuation and company-specific risks. No formula sets the rank.
Adds Medium or High thesis relevance without mechanically changing the valuation signal or quality tier.
Ranks business durability separately. The 30-year tier does not mechanically affect the 3–5-year ranking, and current valuation is excluded from the tier.
RESEARCH DISCIPLINE
Company results and filings anchor the operating assessment. Independent reporting supplies event context; third-party valuation data remains a screening reference.
My underlying research tracks normalised earnings and free cash flow, dilution, valuation assumptions and what could go wrong. I project earnings and cash flow over the next two years, using different growth assumptions for each company. These inform my judgment; they do not mechanically determine the ranking.
A durable business is not automatically undervalued. A low multiple is not automatically a dislocation. The two judgments remain independent.
Each monthly edition records what changed and why. Previous rankings remain on record so readers can follow how my assessment develops.
THE AUTHOR
I’m a Belgian independent investor and writer. I study valuation dislocations, durable businesses and strategic technology shifts. The S&P 500 is my reference point: an active investment has to offer a convincing reason to own it instead of the index. I publish this research to explain my thinking and track how it changes as new evidence arrives.
Read my research on Substack ↗Signal / Map is independent research for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Data and valuations are shown as of their stated dates.