Strong dislocation, clears the index hurdle and screens at 11.8× forward earnings.
Current edition · July 2026
Research byMichaël HillaertSubstack ↗
Research byMichaël HillaertSubstack ↗THIS EDITION · 31 JULY 2026Three things to knowIntuit remains the strongest active dislocation; RELX records the largest upward move.
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The refreshed evidence and valuation strengthened the signal from Probable to Strong.
Apparent cheapness is excluded where peak-cycle earnings or weak cash conversion dominate the multiple.
Find your viewFilter by theme or open the complete 34-company universe.
COVERED UNIVERSE · 34 COMPANIES
Full opportunity set
Other means valuation candidates outside the Top 10. Likely false means apparent cheapness may rely on unsustainable assumptions. Archived means retained for reference but not currently assessed.
Edition changes9 documented field events plus the Top 10 reorder24 July 2026 → 31 July 2026
Top 10 rank comparisonWatchlist means the company had no published section rank at baseline.
CompanyBaselineCurrentMove
Intuit#1#1—
RELX#8#2↑ 6
Adobe#9#3↑ 6
Tencent#6#4↑ 2
Constellation Software#4#5↓ 1
ExperianWatchlist#6Entered
AutodeskWatchlist#7Entered
Meta Platforms#3#8↓ 5
Microsoft#2#9↓ 7
NetflixWatchlist#10Entered
Published field changesOnly event rows recorded in the valuation workbook are shown.
MicrosoftSignal
Strong → ProbableHurdle unchanged; absorption 3. Price, valuation and evidence refresh moderated the signal.
RELXSignal
Probable → StrongHurdle unchanged; absorption 4. The 31 July evidence and valuation refresh strengthened the mismatch.
AmazonSignal + hurdle
No current / Does not clear → Conditional / ConditionalAbsorption 2 → 3.
S&P GlobalSignal
Conditional → ProbableHurdle remains Conditional; absorption 3.
NetflixSignal
Conditional → ProbableHurdle remains Conditional; absorption 4 → 3.
MSCISignal + hurdle
Conditional / Conditional → No current / Does not clearAbsorption remains 3.
AdobeAbsorption
5 → 4Signal and hurdle unchanged after the projection refresh.
SynopsysAbsorption
2 → 3Signal and hurdle unchanged after the projection refresh.
ServiceNowAbsorption
4 → 3Signal and hurdle unchanged after the projection refresh.
Tier and thesis treatment. The 30-year tiers are current July context, not a dated 24 July event series, so no tier change is claimed. Thesis notes above follow the workbook’s event records; unchanged fields are omitted.
Coverage groups are selected above. Signal and hurdle filters apply only to the Top 10 and never substitute for Other, Likely false or Archived. Signal: Conditional dislocation ≠ Hurdle: Conditional.
CompanyCurrent status Signal measures apparent mispricing. Hurdle asks whether the stock currently looks preferable to the S&P 500.Valuation Metrics differ by company and are screening references, not directly comparable scores.Monitoring / reasonValuation absorption / date How quickly and reliably conservative earnings or free cash flow make today’s valuation attractive. 1 = slow or uncertain; 5 = fast and reliable. This is not a business-quality score.
Ranked valuation dislocationsThe Top 10 receives full rank, signal, hurdle, valuation and monitoring detail.
Strong dislocationHurdle · Clears11.8× fwd P/E; 11.1× P/FCF5/5
Strong dislocationHurdle · Clears17.9× fwd P/E; 16.3× P/FCF4/5
Probable dislocationHurdle · Clears9.6× fwd P/E; 9.6× P/FCF4/5
Strong dislocationHurdle · Conditional13.7× fwd P/E; 16.2× P/FCF4/5
Conditional dislocationHurdle · Conditional19.1× fwd P/E; 16.8× P/FCF4/5
Probable dislocationHurdle · Clears19.3× fwd P/E; 15.5× P/FCF4/5
Conditional dislocationHurdle · Conditional18.2× fwd P/E; 18.2× P/FCF4/5
Probable dislocationHurdle · Clears16.8× fwd P/E; 34.1× P/FCF3/5
Probable dislocationHurdle · Clears23.1× fwd P/E; 50.0× P/FCF3/5
Probable dislocationHurdle · Conditional21.1× fwd P/E; 27.3× P/FCF3/5
Other valuation candidatesUnranked candidates shown for valuation context only; no current signal, hurdle or detailed assessment is published.
AlphabetChina exposure · Medium
25.1× fwd P/E; 78.8× P/FCF31 July 2026AmazonChina exposure · Medium
29.6× fwd P/E; P/FCF N/M31 July 2026S&P Global
22.0× fwd P/E; 21.9× P/FCF31 July 2026Intuitive Surgical
31.2× fwd P/E; 38.5× P/FCF31 July 2026ASMLChina exposure · High
37.5× fwd P/E; 55.2× P/FCF31 July 2026SynopsysChina exposure · Medium
23.5× fwd P/E; 27.1× P/FCF31 July 2026Topicus.com
20.9× fwd P/E; 12.9× P/FCF31 July 2026NVIDIAChina exposure · High
19.5× fwd P/E; 39.7× P/FCF31 July 2026ServiceNow
24.3× fwd P/E; 24.9× P/FCF31 July 2026Mastercard
26.8× fwd P/E; 30.3× P/FCF31 July 2026TSMCChina exposure · High
19.5× fwd P/E; 54.8× P/FCF31 July 2026Novo Nordisk
16.5× fwd P/E; 24.2× P/FCF31 July 2026Schneider Electric
25.7× fwd P/E; 25.9× P/FCF31 July 2026TransDigm
31.7× FY2026 adjusted P/E; 43.7× annualised H1 P/FCF31 July 2026Likely-false dislocationsLow multiples may depend on peak-cycle earnings or weak cash conversion, so these names are shown without a rank.
Super Micro Computer
Likely false8.1× forward P/E; P/FCF N/Mrecord sales don't convert to cash — Q3 operating cash flow –$6.6bn, plus ongoing share dilution.SK hynixChina exposure · High
Likely false3.0× forward P/E; 10.5× screening P/FCFpeak-cycle memory earnings — 76% operating margin unlikely to hold; profit inflated by one-off Kioxia gains.Samsung ElectronicsChina exposure · High
Likely false4.1× forward P/E; 11.7× screening P/FCFlow multiple rests on peak memory pricing; new capacity can compress profits.Micron TechnologyChina exposure · High
Likely false6.1× forward P/E; 36.5× screening P/FCFvaluation assumes ~86% gross margins persist; exposed to memory-price normalisation.Oracle
Likely false15.8× forward P/E; P/FCF N/Mfree cash flow –$23.7bn while funding AI infrastructure; works only if backlog converts to cash and debt falls.Archived coverageRetained for reference and future review, but not currently ranked or assessed in detail.
CadenceChina exposure · Medium
ArchivedMoody's
ArchivedMSCI
ArchivedVisa
ArchivedReddit
ArchivedStrategic technology exposureMulti-horizon · separate from valuation rank and long-term quality.
CHINA TECHNOLOGY CATCH-UP · 27 JULY 2026
Material exposure across time horizons
High · 7Medium · 7
Medium and High describe relevance to the company thesis—not timing, probability, domain confidence or direct China revenue. Companies without a tag have no material exposure identified in the current layer.
CompanyImpactPrimary exposureThesis consequenceClassification effect
HighMemory / HBM · AI chips · Foundation models · +2 more
Domestic AI chips, cloud and applications can strengthen Tencent’s platform, while weak HBM and rising AI investment remain constraints.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedHighLeading-edge fabrication · Mature / specialty chips · Lithography · +2 more
China still lacks production-grade EUV, preserving ASML’s frontier monopoly; near-term risk is export exclusion and gradual substitution in lower-end DUV and fab tools.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedHighLeading-edge fabrication · Memory / HBM · Advanced packaging · +3 more
Domestic AI chips and a future closing of the HBM gap threaten Nvidia’s China profit pool, although low-cost models also expand demand for compute and applications.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedHighLeading-edge fabrication · Mature / specialty chips · Memory / HBM · +5 more
Chinese fabrication and packaging progress can reduce future China-linked demand, while frontier yield, efficiency and advanced-packaging gaps remain meaningful near-term moats.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedHighMemory / HBM
China’s conventional-memory progress already creates pricing pressure; closing the HBM gap would weaken foreign suppliers’ leverage in the AI hardware chain.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedHighMemory / HBM
China’s conventional-memory progress already creates pricing pressure; closing the HBM gap would weaken foreign suppliers’ leverage in the AI hardware chain.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedHighMemory / HBM
China’s conventional-memory progress already creates pricing pressure; closing the HBM gap would weaken foreign suppliers’ leverage in the AI hardware chain.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedMediumAI applications / assistants
Chinese AI applications can compress pricing and export through devices and apps, increasing pressure on Western application-layer products.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedMediumFoundation models · AI applications
Low-cost Chinese models pressure model economics, but near-term pressure is judged smaller on Meta’s core advertising profit pool.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedMediumFoundation models · AI cloud · AI applications
Low-cost models can compress AI pricing, while Chinese full-stack clouds may compete in emerging markets; direct China exposure is limited.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedMediumFoundation models · AI cloud · AI applications
Low-cost Chinese models pressure AI pricing and assistants; lower-cost Chinese clouds can compete in emerging markets, while near-term pressure on core advertising remains smaller.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedMediumFoundation models · AI cloud · AI applications
Low-cost Chinese models compress model pricing, while full-stack Chinese clouds may compete in emerging markets despite limited direct China exposure for Western hyperscalers.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedMediumLeading-edge fabrication · Advanced packaging · EDA / IP · +1 more
China lacks a complete advanced-node EDA flow, but forced localization can reduce China licences and pricing power as domestic design tools improve.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedMediumAdvanced packaging · EDA / IP
China lacks a complete advanced-node EDA flow, but forced localization can reduce China licences and pricing power as domestic design tools improve.
No reclassificationCurrent signal and 30-year view unchangedLong-term quality dashboardThis view does not inherit the valuation rank, signal or hurdle.
30-YEAR COMPOUNDER VIEW · JULY 2026
Business durability, separated from valuation
A 30-year business-durability view. Current valuation, dislocation rank and strategic technology exposure play no mechanical role.Valuations shown here are informational as of the stated date; they play no role in the 30-year quality ranking, which is based solely on business durability.
30-year rankCompanyTierCompounding engineRationale
#1MicrosoftA+
Office, Azure and developer tools sit inside core business workflows and reinforce each other.
Multiple embedded platforms, strong cash generation and unusually broad reinvestment optionality, balanced by higher AI capital intensity.
#2IntuitB+
Tax, accounting, payroll and credit data turn recurring compliance work into a trusted ecosystem.
Deep trust and recurring compliance workflows support a long, focused reinvestment runway.
#2Meta PlatformsB+
Identity, discovery, social proof, messaging and business contact form a combined network.
Powerful network effects and cash generation, balanced by attention shifts, regulation and high capital spending.
#2RELXB+
Proprietary legal, scientific and risk data are embedded in professional decisions.
Embedded professional workflows, proprietary data and reliable cash conversion support durable compounding.
#5AutodeskB
Design files and workflows are deeply embedded across architecture, engineering and construction.
An embedded design-workflow franchise with meaningful long-term AI and platform risk.
#5Constellation SoftwareB
Decentralized vertical-software acquisitions turn recurring cash flow into a long reinvestment runway.
An exceptional acquisition culture whose next phase depends on maintaining returns at greater scale under post-founder leadership.
#5ExperianB
Credit data, scoring, identity and decision tools are embedded in lending and consumer workflows.
A durable data-and-workflow franchise with meaningful cyclical and regulatory exposure.
#8AdobeC
Creative tools, professional workflows and the PDF standard still support a broad ecosystem.
A broad creative and document ecosystem whose long-term pricing power is being retested.
#8NetflixC
Global distribution, recommendation and engagement support pricing and content efficiency.
A strong global platform with a less visible long-term reinvestment runway beyond entertainment.
#8TencentC
WeChat, gaming, payments and advertising form a deeply connected consumer ecosystem.
A high-quality ecosystem whose outcome is partly capped by regulation and geopolitics.
Other tiered companiesValuation only · 31 July 2026
Alphabet25.1× fwd P/E; 78.8× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Amazon29.6× fwd P/E; P/FCF N/M31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
S&P Global22.0× fwd P/E; 21.9× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Intuitive Surgical31.2× fwd P/E; 38.5× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
ASML37.5× fwd P/E; 55.2× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Synopsys23.5× fwd P/E; 27.1× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Topicus.com20.9× fwd P/E; 12.9× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
NVIDIA19.5× fwd P/E; 39.7× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
ServiceNow24.3× fwd P/E; 24.9× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Mastercard26.8× fwd P/E; 30.3× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
TSMC19.5× fwd P/E; 54.8× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Novo Nordisk16.5× fwd P/E; 24.2× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Schneider Electric25.7× fwd P/E; 25.9× P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
TransDigm31.7× FY2026 adjusted P/E; 43.7× annualised H1 P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Cadence39.2× forward P/E; 55.4× screening P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Moody's27.1× forward P/E; 28.1× screening P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
MSCI27.2× forward P/E; 26.2× screening P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
Visa25.3× forward P/E; 32.0× screening P/FCF31 July 2026Outside current Top 10
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data and valuations are shown as of their stated dates.